The aggregation with exponential weights (AEW) estimator is not fully understood in the basic setting of model selection aggregation with squared loss. In particular, whether it is minimax-rate optimal in expectation for large enough fixed temperatures and under random design has been an open problem since its introduction, which was explicitly posed by Lecué and Mendelson (2013). In this paper, we settle this problem by showing that \emph{without} requiring a Bernstein-type assumption, the AEW indeed achieves the excess risk $T \log (M) / (n+1)$ in expectation, whenever the temperature $T$ satisfies $(L^2/T)\exp(B/T)\leq μ/2$. Here, the number of dictionary elements is $M$, the estimator has observed $n$ i.i.d. samples from any distribution, and the loss is assumed to be bounded by $B$, $L$-Lipschitz continuous and $μ$-strongly convex. For squared loss, we show that $T\geq 4 b^2$ suffices when the predictions and labels are $[0,b]$-valued. Because AEW is known to be suboptimal in expectation for temperatures below some constant, this shows that AEW has a sharp phase transition when the temperature is large enough but constant, as conjectured by Lecué and Mendelson.

Machine learning algorithms and their training datasets have grown substantially in both size and complexity over the past decade. This increased model complexity has made it challenging to interpret and predict their behavior in unobserved scenarios. Hence, many applications that involve societal decisions still rely on simple, interpretable models like linear regression, often after feature engineering. Examples of such applications include predicting national housing prices, estimating wages across industries, forecasting loan amounts across banks, predicting life insurance premiums across groups, and projecting energy consumption across communities [CGKMN24]. A shared safety and sometimes legal concern across the above applications is the potential for wildly different model qualities for different distributions, i.e., outputting a notably worse model for some source data distributions [Dat14; BS16; HPS16; VVB18; SBFVV19; BHJKR21; CGNSG23; Cho16; KLMR18; ADW19; CGKMN24; SVWZ24].

Stochastic Gradient Descent ($\textsf{SGD}$) is one of the most classical optimization algorithms with favorable theoretical guarantees, yet the practical implementation of $\textsf{SGD}$ differs subtly from its well-known form and is often referred to as Shuffling Stochastic Gradient Descent ($\textsf{Shuffling SGD}$). A particularly popular strategy in $\textsf{Shuffling SGD}$ is Random Reshuffling ($\textsf{RR}$), which has achieved great empirical success across numerous experiments. Despite its strong performance, $\textsf{RR}$ has long been considered a heuristic due to a lack of theoretical support. Over the last decade, people have finally established provable convergence rates for $\textsf{RR}$, thus justifying its observed superiority. However, for smooth convex optimization, two clouds over the convergence theory of $\textsf{RR}$ remain to this day. More precisely, according to the current theory, $\textsf{Shuffling SGD}$ under $\textsf{RR}$ converges only when the stepsize is smaller than a threshold proportional to $1/n$, where $n$ is the number of summands in the objective (or the number of data points). Consequently, the optimally tuned theoretical rate of $\textsf{Shuffling SGD}$ under $\textsf{RR}$ is strictly worse than that of $\textsf{SGD}$ when the number of epochs is smaller than another threshold proportional to $n$. These two restrictions heavily limit the applicability of existing theories and leave a critical mismatch with practice. In this work, for the first time, we prove that $\textsf{RR}$ dominates $\textsf{SGD}$ in smooth convex optimization under any reasonable stepsize after any finite number of epochs, thereby addressing a longstanding open question.

A deep network's loss is invariant to continuous symmetries of its parameters: the logit shift, the ReLU rescaling, the LayerNorm scale, the per-head attention rotation. Adam's per-coordinate preconditioner drifts along each symmetry orbit, which pulls the trajectory off the symmetry quotient where the optimization lives and blurs the singular-learning rate the quotient makes readable. We build DDC, a Dead-Direction Conditioner that lifts a base optimizer into a $G$-equivariant one: it conditions the optimizer's state in the orbit decomposition of a $G$-invariant metric, so the trajectory stays a preconditioned gradient flow on the quotient $\barΘ= Θ/G$. The construction carries four architectural gauges (cross-entropy shift, ReLU and SwiGLU rescaling, LayerNorm and RMSNorm scale, and a per-head $O(d_{\rm head})$ attention rotation matched to RoPE), proves exactly equivariant on an Adam base, and composes with a Muon base through a gauge-equivariant orthogonaliser. Respecting the symmetry changes both the minimum the optimizer reaches and what it leaves measurable there. On a language model trained past the point of fit, DDCAdam resists the over-training collapse AdamW falls into, holding a validation-train loss gap of 0.67 against 5.88, and reads the dead-direction rate in 32 of 65 layer-by-observable cells where AdamW reads it in 7. A vision transformer trained from scratch reaches lower validation loss (1.71 against 2.12) while compressing spare feed-forward capacity a matched AdamW leaves intact. On a Muon base, where the rotation gauge composes exactly, DDCMuon groks ten of eleven seeds at depth 24 that a plain Muon never reaches. Built into the optimizer, a network's gauge symmetry sharpens the minimum it finds and turns that minimum's geometry into something the trajectory can measure.

Rapid prototyping of algorithms is a critical step in modern machine learning. Most algorithms exploit linear algebra, creating a need for lightweight numerical routines which -- while potentially sub-optimal for the task at hand -- can be rapidly implemented. For the numerical solution of ill-conditioned linear systems of equations, the standard solution for prototyping is Tikhonov-regularised inversion using a nugget. However, selection of the size of nugget is often difficult, and the use of data-adaptive procedures precludes automatic differentiation, introducing instabilities into end-to-end training. Further, while data-adaptive procedures perform multiple linear solves to select the size of nugget, only the result of one such solve is returned, which we argue is wasteful. This paper aims to circumvent the above difficulties, presenting autonugget; a Python package for automatic and stable numerical solution of linear systems suitable for rapid prototyping, and fully compatible with automatic differentiation using JAX. autonugget combines multiple linear solves using Richardson extrapolation to determine the solution of the ill-conditioned system, improving in accuracy over approximations based on a single nugget.

The common factor analytic model is related to Helmholtz and Boltzmann machines, can be conceived as a linear autoencoder, or can be thought of as a single-hidden-layer generative neural network. We thus consider it a basal generative representation learner that can be used as a minimal model for studying the foundational characteristics of (deep) generative model architectures. We focus on the fundamental problem of indeterminacy in latent factor projections. This indeterminacy implies that, even when the intrinsic dimension of the latent vector is known, regularity conditions are met, and rotational indeterminacy is resolved, an inherent indefiniteness in the retrieval of causative latent sources remains: they will be uncertain, distributionally deviant, and non-unique. This can have major implications for data representation but remains an elusive issue, even to practitioners and theorists well-versed in the factor model. Moreover, this classic psychometric problem is intricately related to the modern issue of latent variable collapse in the variational autoencoder framework for deep generative modeling. Here, we assess this indeterminacy from various perspectives and show how these are mathematically and conceptually related and we discuss subsequent implications for the Psychometrics, Statistics, and Artificial Intelligence communities. We show that one has latent factor determinacy across all its facets when the feature-dimension grows to infinity. This feeds into an essentially distribution-free estimation approach in the sample case when the number of features grows very large. We conclude, as these are emergent properties at scale, that the factor model is suited for representation learning of very-high-dimensional data.

Pervasive data contamination -- stemming from measurement errors, outliers, or adversarial corruption -- has motivated the development of robust statistical methods. In this context, we propose a two-stage Adversarial Contamination-resistant Iterative Hard Thresholding (AC-IHT) algorithm for high-dimensional regression with contamination. Our nonconvex algorithm achieves minimax near-optimal (up to logarithmic terms) estimation by iteratively updating the coefficient vector and the contamination vector with different thresholding scales. We further demonstrate that our AC-IHT estimator is signal-adaptive: under proper signal conditions, it adaptively attains a sharper estimation rate and more accurate support recovery. Moreover, it enjoys the strong oracle property, laying a theoretical foundation for asymptotic inference. Numerical experiments confirm its superior finite-sample performance. Finally, we discuss theoretical extensions of the proposed procedure to generalized linear models and to heavy-tailed noise settings.

Last-iterate convergence and generalization guarantees in first-order convex learning hinge on the monotonicity of the update operator. While linear averaging preserves the monotonicity of gradient updates, this property is often violated when gradients are aggregated non-affinely, as in modern pipelines enforcing constraints like adaptivity, privacy, robustness or fairness. Whether it is possible to design non-affine aggregation rules that maintain monotonicity has remained an open question. We answer this question negatively: we prove that the monotonicity of aggregated gradients is preserved if and only if the aggregation rule is positively affine. Consequently, non-affine aggregation prevents steady convergence and substantially degrade algorithmic stability. We quantify these drawbacks and propose a path forward by identifying sufficient conditions under which monotonicity can be restored. Our results provide a unified theoretical framework explaining the disparate failure modes observed in modern learning systems.

We study the problem of estimating the arrival times of vertices in a uniform random recursive tree from its unlabeled structure. We adopt a pointwise perspective and analyze the distribution of the relative estimation error, and derive tail bounds that are uniform in both the vertex and the tree size. For the ranking induced by Jordan centrality, the probability that the estimate exceeds the true arrival time by a factor $S$ decays on the order of $1/S$, while the probability of underestimating the arrival time by a factor $1/S$ decays exponentially in $S$. We introduce a refined centrality measure whose overestimation tail decays on the order of $(\log S)/S^{2}$, at the cost of a heavier lower tail of order $1/S^{2}$. These results reveal a tradeoff between upper- and lower-tail performance in arrival-time estimation that is invisible to the previously studied risk functional. Nevertheless, the refined centrality measure attains the optimal order of the risk for all its parameter values.

We establish a lower bound on the eluder dimension of generalised linear model classes, showing that standard eluder dimension-based analysis cannot lead to first-order regret bounds. To address this, we introduce a localisation method for the eluder dimension; our analysis immediately recovers and improves on classic results for Bernoulli bandits, and allows for the first genuine first-order bounds for finite-horizon reinforcement learning tasks with bounded cumulative returns.